South Sudan Interior Ministry to campaign against internal trade in military uniforms

January 2, 2015 by The Speaker Editors

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Juba – The Ministry of Interior is to campaign against the trade in the uniforms of military and other organized forces in the country, Aleu Ayeng Aleu of the Interior Ministry told Parliament prior to its recess Friday.

Aleu’s statements follow urgent information raised by Joseph Ngere, MP from Western Equatoria, who said some companies have advertised the items on the local media.

According to the advert, Ngere said, “We are making all types of uniforms for police, military and national security.”

He said, “This is an issue of sovereignty and national security. If these people are producing military garments and we have the menace of seeing military garments all over the town and in the country. Who is doing this without control and do we not know who has given them the responsibility to produce these?” Ngere asked.

Ngere added that these traders will expose the parade of the national army in the country if any contract is signed with the traders.

The minister said this is an issue which is a problem in the country though he was not aware but further said it is not only in Kololo but in Jebel one can find all kinds of uniforms being sold.

“Even a regular person sewing in Buluk hangs these up for everybody to buy. We are fighting this.”

Aleu added that it is the source of crimes as people with illicit guns buy these uniforms and use them at night, pretending to be members of the police or national security.

“We have clashed with many of them but sometimes they go unnoticed. I even came across some of them at 11 p.m. while for a dinner in Davinci with the German ambassador.”

According to Aleu, a group of people who were seven in number stopped cars claiming that a driver had knocked a person out near the University of Juba and ran away.

In an earlier interview with the New Nation in 2013, police spokesperson Col. James Monday said they had arrested some members of the organized forces for committing crimes and being prosecuted.

He also said criminals acquire uniforms to use them at night for committing crimes as they pretend to be police officers.

The minister further said the police officers who patrol at night bear labels which allow them to be identified easily.

By Moi Peter Julius

Women in South Sudan urged to speak out against GBV

January 2, 2015January 2, 2015 by The Speaker Editors

Mundari women dancing during the Xmas in one of the outskirts of Juba

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Juba – South Sudanese women have been told to expose Gender Based Violence (GBV) by reporting cases to the public, especially law enforcement agencies and community leaders.

The call was made during the launch of a social norms marketing campaign by the International Rescue Committee (IRC) at Nyokuron Cultural Centre, attended by civil society organizations, women, and national and state government officials.

Gender based violence is considered a serious crime which according to Moses Majok, a police officer with the national police service, is against the rights of women.

“It breads conflicts in homes. The South Sudan National Police Service will try its best to aggressively respond to GBV and child trafficking, to bring equal rights to all.”

He announced the establishment of a special unit at the national police service and encouraged women not to suffer in silence but report abuses to the unit for prosecutions to take place.

Majok also called for communities to shun certain harmful traditional practices like the early child marriages common in most societies, as well as female genital mutilation (FGM).

Most communities in South Sudan tend to marry off their younger daughters to wealthy people regardless of their approval.

Almost half of all South Sudanese women and girls between ages 15 and 19 are married, some as young as age 12, according to Human Rights Watch in 2014.

Many families in South Sudan see child marriage as a means of accessing cattle, money, and other gifts by transferring wealth through the traditional payment of dowries.

Considered by the UN and others to be an egregious violation of women and girls’ human rights, child marriage in South Sudan is held to exacerbate the country’s high levels of poverty, low levels of literacy, pronounced gender gaps in education, and soaring rates of maternal mortality—currently among the highest in the world.

The director general of gender and child welfare at the National Ministry of Gender, Child and Social Welfare, Regina Ossa Lullo, said the days of activism against GBV in the country should continue beyond those globally set aside.

She said that the women who make up 49 percent of the population of the country are marginalized in their social and economic situation and are unable to contribute to socio-economic development of South Sudan.

Ossa told women not to give up but to fight for their rights, calling for the eradication of social injustices suffered by women.

“No woman should give up fighting for her rights. We must do more to combat violence, brutality against women wherever and whenever it occurs,” said Ossa.

According to her, one in three women nationwide experiences violence in her life. “Violence knows no religion. Family, community and the entire country suffers. Preventing, showing respect and responsibility is the only way for peace and prosperity.”

She said the ministry is developing a standard operating procedure which is still in draft form, and once passed it will be rolled out to the states in order to mitigate GBV.

Ossa added that prevention of violence against women requires an integrated approach by all in the society, including government institutions.

The director cited an example of a young girl of 14 who was sent to a shop at 8 p.m. by her parents and was brutally raped by an adult and three young men.

She added that especially during the war time women experience physical violence which she said amounts to violation of human rights, stating, “Sexual violence will not be tolerated now and forever.”

IRC Women’s Empowerment and Protection Senior Manager Pamela Tuiyott said the campaign targets the police, elders, and aims for survivors of violence to speak up.

Tuiyott also said the campaign targets behavioral and social change in communities and is aimed at ending violence against women.

By Moi Julius

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The Fed’s New Year’s resolution

January 2, 2015January 1, 2015 by Andrew Gehrig

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On December 17th the Federal Reserve’s FOMC released its meeting statement, forecast and held a press conference for chair Yellen. The Fed kept up its data dependent commitment to raise interest rates, but affirmed to be patient when deciding to do so. Janet Yellen once again reiterated that the decision is entirely data dependent. Meaning if the data isn’t strong enough, the committee is not incorrect in their current forward guidance policy. This forward guidance policy of informing the markets vaguely what the FOMC will do in the coming months is an attempt to instill confidence into a shaky financial world.

The Fed included their comments and projections on the current low inflation rates of 2014. Chair Yellen saw low inflation as a potential danger to the economy, but yet most analysts still expect the Fed to raise rates in 2015. This may prove to be a large misunderstanding. The Fed has said numerous times that it is imperative to prevent deflation from taking a grip on the economy. Even the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde says, “If inflation is the genie, deflation is the ogre that must be fought decisively.” Her statement is interpreted as meaning inflation is like a genie, once you let it out of the bottle it is hard to get it back in. Deflation on the other hand is a much more dangerous and deadly ogre that can also have terrible effects. Central bankers currently have a strategy for fighting ogres. The plan is loose monetary policy and money supply expansion. But raising rates is exactly the opposite of the ogre fighting remedy, since they are instead tightening monetary policy; so in theory it’s much more like ogre food.

Unless the Federal Reserve wants to accelerate the natural deflation, which would accomplish the complete opposite goal of its last several policies, then raising rates now or in six months could bring the markets back to a point like was seen in 2008. The world is only starting to experience a large deflationary pull due to low oil prices and its effect on energy businesses and lending institutions. If the plunge in oil causes a crisis to spill over into other markets, which is a high probability if oil prices stay low for a considerable time, then the Fed will have even more low inflation, if not outright deflation to deal with. Raising rates just doesn’t make sense in a deflationary world, when the thing you are trying to prevent is a deflationary spiral. In fact, I am going to call the Fed’s bluff here.

With the New Year upon us, it is the time where many people make unreasonable goals for themselves which none the less end up falling through by February. Like everyone else, the Fed has a New Year’s resolution. It happens to be very much like the popular, going on a diet resolution, but this time is a little bit different. The Fed’s resolution is to go on a diet starting in about six months. It could be May or June, or even September, but their New Year’s resolution is to go on that diet. If a friend told you the same thing, you might be pretty skeptical about. Why don’t they just start it now? Well that’s probably because they aren’t going to go on a diet at all.

The Fed is not raising raise rates now, and even according to their own actual statistical evidence, they won’t be able to in six months. The Fed downwardly revised their PCE Inflation expectation for 2015, and that figure is even lower than the “low inflation” seen in 2014! If low inflation is a problem, then how can they move forward?

The Fed expects deflation, but plans on raising rates; that’s nonsense. Not only will the Fed not raise rates in 2015, they may even restart Quantitative Easing, in the latter half of the year, especially if a crisis brews in the oil, housing or financial sectors. In this New Year, the remaining hawkish members of the Board of Governors are scheduled to be replaced with more dovish leaders. With the most dovish Chairperson in the history of the Federal Reserve and a Board of Governors filled with doves, the Fed will certainly be more than “patient” in raising rates. This situation reminds me a lot of my Great Aunt Thelma who would often say “I’m going on a diet on Tuesday.” Tuesday would roll around and if you asked about her diet she’d exclaim with a smirk “I didn’t say what Tuesday!”

Analysis by Andrew Gehrig

Destroy, Rebuild – The future of green space in Ho Chi Minh City

January 1, 2015January 1, 2015 by The Speaker Editors

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With green space losing out to several large public infrastructure projects, local residents are worried about the future of Ho Chi Minh City’s urban environment. Michael Tatarski looks into one group’s conservation efforts and asks whether the city can develop without giving in to environmental tradeoffs.

When news broke in November that the city would clear 84 mahogany trees from Ton Duc Thang Street to make way for construction of another bridge from District 1 to the Thu Thiem area across the Saigon River in District 2, Nguyen Phuong Thao felt she could no longer stand by. “Someone needed to speak up, and I decided I would be the first to do it,” she says through a translator.

The announcement came on the heels of another story that 200 trees would also be felled in District 2, while part of Le Loi and all of Nguyen Hue, two major downtown thoroughfares, had already been denuded for work on a pedestrian boulevard and the metro system. According to Thao, who owns a coffee shop and works for a company that builds brands, many residents felt depressed by the news because they couldn’t do anything, as the plans were already approved when they were released to the public. In response she created a website, HappyTreeInSaigon.com, to give voice to those concerned by the removal of so much green space.

“The purpose of the website was to collect signatures and send them to the agencies and organisations [in charge of the bridge and other projects] so the government will know about the expectations of the citizens and consider more carefully before they conduct something that may harm the environment,” Thao says.

So far, Thao and her team have collected around 3,000 signatures, about half of which are from students. “The final purpose is to get the attention of people who have authority because I don’t want to do this alone,” she says. “I want someone who actually has power and can make an impact.”

Happy Tree in Saigon, the group born from the website, made headlines late last year when members gathered on Ton Duc Thang and held banners explaining the importance of the doomed trees. However, the group does not plan any repeat actions, since the police were concerned about traffic jams related to the group’s presence. “We will focus more on digital media and when we have enough funds we will focus on one spot, like having an event in one place, not on the street,” Thao stresses.

When it comes to funding, Thao is hopeful that NGOs working on environmental projects in Saigon will be willing to provide monetary support to her conservation efforts. If money comes through, Thao aims to create an education campaign centred on the environment. “Youths do not fully understand the environment … I want them to learn how to protect it in the correct way,” she explains.

Dr Michael Waibel, a professor in the Department of Human Geography at the University of Hamburg who has studied Vietnam since 1996, agrees that Saigon has a green space problem. According to statistics from the HCMC Park and Greenery Office, the city has just 0.8 square metres of green space per capita. This puts the city well below the World Health Organisation’s recommendation of a minimum eight square metres per capita. However, Waibel’s main concern is inequality in access to green space. “People in District 7 or on the outskirts have much better access,” he says. “The biggest problem is with the densely-populated inner city. It’s a socioeconomic question.”

He views the current situation with the trees in a more utilitarian way. “Regarding the trees on Le Loi, in this case it’s a tradeoff. You need a public transportation system to decrease individual traffic, so you make something that is good for sustainability but you have to cut the trees,” Waibel says from Hamburg. He is also positive about the future of green space in the city, something which may hearten Thao and the other members of Happy Tree in Saigon.

“One thing you can say is that the trees grow incredibly fast in Saigon,” the urban planner says. “Look at Phu My Hung [a new urban area south of the city], where the trees have become huge in just ten years.” If trees are replanted once the projects are completed, he reckons, the streets could look nearly normal in just a decade or two. The city government has also set a target of raising the provision of green space to four or five square metres per capita in the future.

However, these initiatives can’t come solely from authorities. “The people themselves have to realize and fight for more green space in their neighbourhoods,” Waibel says. He points to the verdant hems, or alleys, of the city, often full of potted plants and flowers. “This kind of bottom-up initiative to expand green space should be supported and people should be educated that they have their own responsibility,” he continues.

Thao understands this responsibility and hopes Happy Tree in Saigon can link decision-makers and the general public. “What we are perceiving wrong is that we develop our country first and protect the environment later,” she says.

The group plans to connect the people who work with trees and the environment with the architecture firms and urban planners who are building the future Saigon to get them to work as a team. “At the moment they work separately, and by bringing them together they can make a complete plan to build while preserving the environment.”

By Michael Tatarski

Thousands of Russian protesters in Moscow: “No Putin, no war!” [video]

December 31, 2014December 31, 2014 by The Speaker Editors

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Thousands of Russians assembled for an unlawful protest in Moscow Tuesday night, shouting slogans such as, “Putin is a thief!” “Crimea is not ours!” and “No Putin, no war!” Hundreds were arrested.

Other chants included sentiments of solidarity with Ukrainians: “Russians! Ukrainians! Brothers forever!” “Putin is Russia’s shame!” “Russia doesn’t trust Putin!” besides the more topical, “Freedom for Navanly!”

The protest was organized around the abrupt sentencing of Russian opposition leader and blogger Alexei Navalry and his brother Oleg Navalny. Alexei Navalny has been for several years one of the most outspoken of Putin’s critics. He and his brother were charged with defrauding a French chocolate company for $520,000.

The sentence was expected to be handed down Jan. 15, but it was suddenly moved forward to Dec. 30, the date of one of the biggest holidays in Russia and the first of the Russian New Years holiday that lasts until Jan. 8.

Also unexpectedly, Navalny received only a suspended sentence instead of the up to 10 years many expected. His brother received 3 years prison for the same charge. Both men were also fined 4.4 million rubles.

Alexei Navalny, however, was arrested hours later for attempting to make his way to Tuesday night’s protest.

Thousands of protesters gathered in front of the Kremlin at Manezh Square to demonstrate against the trial. Rock band Pussy Riot had released a video early Tuesday urging participation at the protest, and approximately 18,000 people indicated they would attend via a Facebook page.

Among those arrested were Aider Muzhdabaev, deputy editor in chief of Moskovsky Komsomolets and journalist Alexander Kolyandr, who was detained for reasons that have not yet been reported.

Around 70 of those arrested were still being held as of Wednesday.

Protesters in Russia can be arrested if the assembly has not been authorized by the Russian government beforehand, although the Russian constitution guarantees, “Citizens of the Russian Federation shall have the right to gather peacefully, without weapons, and to hold meetings, rallies, demonstrations, marches and pickets.” (Art. 31.) In 2012, the Russian government stiffened penalties for protesters by raising fines for illegal protesters and criminalizing the use of masks, weapons or objects that may be used as weapons, and the organization of protests by citizens who have been convicted of certain crimes.

By James Haleavy

[su_youtube url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sPnEhNt1_c&feature=youtu.be”][su_youtube url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05aN75rhJ7s”][su_youtube url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsQ63m4hLN0″][su_youtube url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ctbc9kw1oHA”][/su_youtube]

Navalny given surprisingly light sentence, attempts to attend protest of conviction, rearrested

December 31, 2014 by The Speaker Editors

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Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny was expected to receive a stiff sentence of up to 10 years for charges of fraud–charges widely believed to be a veil for the Russian government’s suspected interest in silencing the outspoken critic–but a surprising verdict saw Navalny walk out of court Tuesday with a suspended sentence, hours before his rearrest for breaking house arrest to attend a protest in Moscow’s Manezh Square.

Navalny was expected to receive 10 years in a penal colony. The prosecutor asked 9 years, but in other recent cases, such as Kirovoles, they added another year.

However, and to the surprise of many, he received a suspended sentence, while his brother Oleg Navalny received three and a half years for the same offense.

Navalny attempted to attend a protest at Manezh Square, located directly in front of the Kremlin, and was arrested by Russian police while en route for breaking the conditions of his house arrest sentence.

Thousands of protesters attended the protest to voice their opposition to the trials of the Navalnys and the Russian war in Ukraine.

Over 100 protesters were arrested at the demonstration. Because the protest was not authorized by the Russian government, all participants committed crimes by attending.

Navalny has been under house arrest since February since he was charged with defrauding French cosmetics firm Yves Rocher with his brother. The men were found guilty of stealing approximately $520,000.

Navalny has been known to the Kremlin since at least 2011 when he was among the leaders of strong protests in Moscow.

The verdict for the sentence was expected to be handed down Jan. 15, 2015, but was brought forward abruptly to Dec. 30, the main Russian New Years holiday. The Russian New Year break begins Dec. 30 and ends Jan. 8. Commenters noted that the date may have been an attempt to avoid or mitigate large-scale protests.

By James Haleavy

Last week Navalny delivered his final speech in court–a form of address called in Russia a “last word,” in which he referenced exiled writer Alexander Solzhenitsyn. In the speech, Navalny reiterated Solzhenitsyn’s phrase, “Live not by lies.”

The 1974 essay was published on the day Solzhenitsyn was arrested by Soviet secret police for treason, and ended, “DON’T LIE! DON’T PARTICIPATE IN LIES! DON’T SUPPORT A LIE!” [sic].

In the essay, Solzhenitsyn argued that the Soviet system was held together by a vital lie, which had become a mode of existence in the land.

Navalny addressed his echo of Solzhenitsyn’s words to the Russian public who participate in the current system of lies–those, Navlny said, who looked into the table rather than eye to eye.

Prosecution may also be directed at other activists associated with Navalny. An investigation into the organizers of public readings in parks have been accused of using public funds to support Navalny in a recently opened investigation.Navalny’s final word:

The last word of Alexei Navalny

“How many times in his life can a person who is not engaged in anything illegal pronounce his last words? Over the past year and a half, this is my sixth or seventh last words. It’s as if we are coming to the last days. All of you–judges, prosecutors, plaintiffs–in your conversations with me, look at the table. You all say, ‘Alexey, well, you already know everything.’ I understand, I understand that you now will not jump up, nor will the representative ‘Yves Rocher’ stand up and say, ‘You have convinced me.’ No, I understand that people are not built this way. No one will say to his family: ‘Today I jailed an obviously innocent man, and I live with it.’ I understand that it will sound like, “You already know everything,” or ‘Well, what did with regard to Putin…’

“My words refer to those who practice wrong or ignore what is happening. My words to you are for recognition that we should not tolerate lies about everything. I’m told that Russian interests in Turkmenistan–they do not exist, but for the interests of Russians in Ukraine it was necessary to start a war. I am told that in Gazprom they do not steal. I bring the documents and hear, ‘This just doesn’t exist.’ I say that we are ready to run in the elections and to demonstrate that we are forming a party. And we are not allowed into the elections and hear, ‘We have won.’

“The more a person brings to a lie, the more he faces that lie. A lie is the essence of the state. Yesterday Putin spoke and said, ‘We have no palaces!’ Yes, we took pictures of three of them in a month.

“Why put up with this nonsense? Why look at the table? Life is too short to look at the table. I do not have time to look back–I’ve already turned forty. Soon I’ll have grandchildren. We’ll look around and we’ll be in bed, and they’ll be looking at us and thinking, ‘Hurry up and vacate it.’We can be proud only moments when we can honestly look into the eyes of each other, when we do something worthy.

“For me it’s quite a painful situation. And a cunning, painful format, which is chosen by the Kremlin, not just putting me in jail, but trying to bring in more people: Ofitserova, the father of five children–and his wife–I have to look them in the eye. I admit it: yes, they hook me in, and also even innocent people are being dragged in. But even taking hostages can not stop me. Life has no meaning if we tolerate lies. I will never agree with the system that has been built in this country. It is built so as to rob everyone who in this room. This is a real junta.

“I do not regret a single second of the actions which I took to fight corruption. Kobzev told me, ‘Alex, you’ll just be jailed, because you have to challenge it, and they won’t endure it.’ Nakarkal! [He has predicted evil!] You can not live with the thought ‘Oh, I will be jailed.’ I was aware of this. But I do not regret it and will encourage people to exercise their right to freedom of assembly, among other things.

“And people have a legitimate right to revolt against the junta that has grabbed everything. We allowed them to rob us and turn us into beasts. What have they paid us? or what were you paid–staring at the table? Education, do you have it? No. Health Care? No. The roads? No. What are the wages of the bailiffs standing here? No, you’re robbed every day. I will not tolerate this. Will stand as long as necessary–here, beside this cage, or inside it.

“My brother was not going to engage in politics. There is no need to aggravate this. I will not stop because of the taking of hostages, but what do they gain from killing them? I appeal to absolutely everyone. It may sound naive, and we are used to laughing at the name of this famous article [by Solzhenitsyn], but, ‘Live not the lie.’

“‘Live not by lies.’ Nothing else is left. In our country, in this situation, there’s no other solution.

“I thank you all for your support and call on everyone to ‘live not by the lie.’ I’m absolutely sure that if they isolate me, if they imprison me and so on, another will come and take my place. I never did anything unique or complicated. I’m sure that in the Anti-Corruption Fund or elsewhere there will be people who will continue to do the same, regardless of the decisions of these courts, the only purpose of which is to imitate justice. Thank you.”

[su_youtube url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6vh4e9LqUI”][su_youtube url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsQ63m4hLN0″][su_youtube url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ctbc9kw1oHA”][/su_youtube]

By James Haleavy

Oil production in Bentiu, South Sudan to resume soon – Petroleum Minister

December 31, 2014 by The Speaker Editors

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Juba – The oil production in Bentiu, the capital of Unity state which was halted due to last year’s political crisis will soon re-start production, according to the Minister of Petroleum and Mining, Deng Dau.

Unity state produces around 15 percent of South Sudan’s oil, while Upper Nile produces the remaining 85 percent. The fighting in Bentiu last April forced many foreign oil workers to flee and oil production had stopped.

According to the minister, preparation steps are in place for the oil to be pumped and production is expected to increase and fill the gap caused by the fall in oil prices globally.

“We have now cleared and the assessment is being done by the operator. We are preparing to resume in Bentiu to compensate the falling prices,” Dau said.

The minister said everything is now ready: “We got report from the operators, they are clearing and cutting the grass everything is okay and ready to resume.”

On the falling oil prices globally, the minister said South Sudan, being an oil producing country, is impacted by the drop in prices like any other oil producing country.

“Almost 35 percent to 40 percent will be the gap due to the fall in oil prices. It will be compensated by producing more.”

He added that production in Upper Nile still remains at 160,000 barrels per day with no improvement as was expected by the finance minister while presenting his budget to Parliament.

South Sudan’s Parliament is worried about the falling oil price. Crude oil dropped another four percent on Thursday to a four-year low of $74 a barrel.

The oil price has dropped by more than 30 percent since June, when it stood at $115 a barrel.

This is bad news for oil producing countries, particularly South Sudan, the most oil-dependent country in the world.

Goc Makwach, the chairperson of the finance committee in Parliament, said it would affect the budget estimates and that they advised the Government not to rely on one source of revenues only.

Oil revenues represent 68 percent of total government income this financial year–estimated at SSP12.7 billion.

This estimate assumes that production in the Upper Nile fields will increase from 180,000 to 220,000 barrels per day by June 2015.

It also assumes that production in Unity state will resume, starting from 5,000 barrels per day and rising to 40,000 by the end of December this year.

Currently, production in the Upper Nile fields stands at 160,000 barrels, while oil production in Unity state remains shut down.

A 30 percent drop in oil prices means South Sudan currently generates only SSP700 million a month from oil revenues, far below the expected SSP1 billion.

It is not clear how the Government plans to fill the deficit. It is already struggling to secure SSP3 billion in loans to finance the budget.

It is also struggling to generate SSP2.6 billion in taxes and fees, more than double last year’s, which some considered over-optimistic considering the ongoing conflict.

The bulk of this year’s budget is taken up by salaries and operational cost of the various ministries and government institutions as well as the army and the police.

The government has just reversed the austerity measures by re-instating housing and other allowances. Makur said it was inconceivable to re-introduce them.

Addressing the shortfall, Makuar said a lot of efforts were being made to increase revenues from taxes and fees.

The vice president James Igga earlier said the Government generates now 3 million SSP daily at Nimule border point when a cleanup was done compared to 400,000 SSP.

He says the Government plans to visit all the border checkpoints specifically Kaya, Nadapal and those bordering the Sudan.

The falling oil price is the third major setback for South Sudan since it gained independence–after the oil shutdown and the conflict.

And it is entirely beyond South Sudan’s control. Analysts point out that the falling price is caused by both higher supply and lower demand.

The world’s slowing economy, particularly in China, and stalled recoveries in Europe and Japan, are reducing the demand for oil.

Others point out that energy-saving measures in rich countries are starting to have an impact. The average new car consumes 25 percent less petrol per mile than ten years ago.

But there has been a big supply shock, too. Global oil production since early 2013 has been running at one million to two million barrels per day higher than in 2012.

This is mainly because the US increased production of shale-oil, to hit 11 million barrels a day this year, overtaking Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s biggest oil producer.

Also, surprisingly, war-torn Libya was pumping 40 percent more oil at the end of September than the previous month.

In addition, Saudi Arabia boost output to protect its market share and hurt American shale producers.

Shale oil is relatively expensive, because it comes from many small, short-lived wells. Analysts claim that a third of wells lose money below an oil price of $80 a barrel.

But economists point out that the low oil price may be short-lived. Some American shale-oil producers may lower or stop production because it becomes no longer economically viable.

As war rages on in oil-producing Iraq and Libya, and Nigeria grapples with an insurgency, supply is vulnerable to chaotic forces.

Petroleum minister Dau said the ministry is in the last step for the implementation of the digital licensing system as the legal framework is in place.

“South Sudan wants to start from where others were. It will be one of the best in Africa,” Dau said.

Dau further said the issuance of the license will begin in March 2015 and will cover the entire minerals in South Sudan, “It will be transparent to all stakeholders, the companies, Government and the people.”

By Moi Julius

IB Times
VOA
All Africa

South Sudan parliament to re-deliberate controversial security bill

December 31, 2014 by The Speaker Editors

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Juba – The National Legislative Assembly will discuss the controversial national security bill which was returned to the house by the president, who declined to sign the bill.

The president’s move follows concerns raised by local and international rights groups, Western countries, opposition political parties and members of his own ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) party.

Those who had walked out when the bill was being endorsed said they were not allowed time to debate and criticized powers given to national security to arrest and detain people.

The minority chief whip Andrew Okony said they are happy now that the bill has been returned for proper debate as they had demanded.

“This is an important bill which needs to be debated and all concerns of the legislators are incorporated,”

The Community Empowerment for Progress Organization (CEPO), a civil society in South Sudan hailed President Salva Kiir for returning the national security bill for more deliberation by the national parliament today, dated 19.12,2014.

CEPO executive coordinator Edmund Yakani in a statement said the decision of returning the national security service bill to the parliament demonstrates the president’s response to the public outcry on the controversial provisions of the bill.

Yakani said CEPO is urging the national parliamentarians to sincerely deliberate on the national security bill with the interest of respecting and honoring the transitional constitution provisions in article 159, in which is defined the mandate of South Sudan’s national security duties, functions and responsibilities.

According to CEPO, the nation needs legislation on national security services but the legislation should embrace democratic principles including respect and fulfillment of human rights as stipulated in the transitional constitution part two, “Bill of Rights.”

He said CEPO will be keenly observing the national parliament on their deliberation on the national security bill improvement.

The executive coordinator pointed that when the parliament endorsed the bill last time, the quorum was not enough and they as MPs were not given time to study the bill.

By Moi Julius

Links:

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Assata Sharkur
New Nation South Sudan

Parties to pursue legal measures to block 2015 elections in South Sudan

December 30, 2014 by The Speaker Editors

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Juba – Opposition political parties will have to take to legal measures to compel the government from holding the 2015 general elections as the conditions will not allow for free and fair vote, according to Dr. Lam Akol, the leader of SPLM-DC.

“Before elections, we are going to take all legal measures to persuade them. It is not the right thing to do. We are not going to fold our hands and wait,”Akol said during the official opening of SPLMDC new premises in Juba today.

He said conducting the elections at the moment would be against the Election Act, and accused the electoral commission of being dragged into politics.

Akol added that the elections for caretaker governors in some of the states of South Sudan such as Jonglei, Lakes have not been conducted according to the constitution, which only gives six months for caretaker governors. “The fact that it has not be done for the governors means it is not possible for the general elections,” said Akol.

According to him, as political parties, peace is a priority at the moment and elections will be conducted later.

He also said 17 political parties had presented a paper a long time ago on resolving the country’s crisis though the government have barred them from attending the Addis Ababa talks.

The SPLMDC leader said despite lots of oil money amounting to 13 billion dollars, bi-lateral support and the 2005 Oslo donors’ conference, nothing in terms of services is being seen. “The SPLM has failed to provide a programme to run our country,” said Akol.

Akol called the 1.5 billion allocated for the conduction of elections meaningless since the Government is unable to feed its people than hurrying for elections insearch for legitimacy.

“Let us concentrate on working for peace,” Dr. Lam Akol urged on the Government.

The leader of minority who is from SPLMDC in the national legislative assembly, Onyoti Adigo, attacked the Government’s demand for elections in 2015 saying it is unacceptable and no one will accept.

He said peace is paramount and urged the warring parties both the Government and the SPLM in opposition rebels to prioritize it.

By Moi Julius
Photo: Apiliga

Contagion – Could it happen?

December 29, 2014 by The Speaker Editors

The dive in the price of oil combined with economic sanctions has hit Russia’s economy very hard. The Russians have experienced massive inflation, as well as large outflow of capital from its borders. To combat this, the Russian Central Bank has raised interest rates to 17 percent, hoping to constrict the rampant inflation by attracting demand for the ruble, and restrict the money supply simultaneously.

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The dive in the price of oil combined with economic sanctions has hit Russia’s economy very hard. The Russians have experienced massive inflation, as well as large outflow of capital from its borders. To combat this, the Russian Central Bank has raised interest rates to 17 percent, hoping to constrict the rampant inflation by attracting demand for the ruble, and restrict the money supply simultaneously.

Keep in mind that the 17 percent is a nominal figure, and if you adjust it for inflation, is much lower. For example, take a nominal interest rate of 10 percent, and then apply inflation at 12 percent, you’d have a negative interest rate of two percent. So as inflation runs high in Russia, the central bank will maintain or raise the real interest rate to combat inflation, even if that means raising the nominal rate to 25 percent. The downside for the Russian Central Bank to raising interest rates is the increased risk of default. This most likely would not transpire into a Russian sovereign debt crisis but a corporate debt crisis. If Russian companies began to go bankrupt and default on their debts it would increase pressure on the lending institutions that hold the paper.

In addition to the pressure applied to banks that have loaned money to Russian companies, which are mostly European banks, there is an even larger problem for US institutions. With a strengthening dollar and falling oil prices, emerging markets have taken a large hit. An emerging market country like Venezuela is very dependent on oil as a major source of revenue, and carries a heavy debt that is 57 percent of its GDP. It is comparable to a family where the father lost his job, and the family is already indebted. There is a good chance for default. Venezuela is not the only case of shaky emerging market debt. Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey all have high debt to GDP loads. In all, there are nine trillion dollars in dollar denominated emerging market debt. On top of that, there is an additional 5 trillion in energy related debt. So in total there is $14 trillion in unstable debt.

Say if 15 percent of the debt ends up in default. We would then be looking at $2.1 trillion in losses. That would be larger than the losses during the Dot-com bubble and the subprime mortgage bubble, which triggered the collapse of the housing market.

Exacerbating this already large problem could be the vast network of derivatives. These derivatives are used for several functions, to trade as financial instruments, to leverage banks’ positions, and to transfer risk.

In this scenario, pay attention to the last point, their ability to “transfer” risk. In 2008, AIG found themselves guaranteeing $61 billion in subprime mortgage derivatives, and could not provide the collateral to back it up. The US government ended up bailing out AIG and a number of other financial institutions. Without that there would have been a complete collapse of our banking system.

Today’s problem is potentially bigger. This is a terrible scenario, but could certainly become a real one if oil prices stay low and the dollar stays strong. Though if the Federal Reserve instead chooses to delay its rate hike, there will be a huge reversal in the dollar, and it will relieve this deflationary trajectory, for at least a little while longer.

Analysis by Andrew Gehrig

South Korea tries to remove the deadlock

December 29, 2014 by The Speaker Editors

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Monday South Korea proposed a series of talks with North Korea. It is an attempt to remove the gunpowder between the two borders which has led to a huge amount of fighting in the past few decades. Since the Korean War of 1950-1953 there has not been any major progress towards negotiations between the two countries.

Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae said at a news conference that South Korea wants to hold talks in January. However, it is still unclear whether North Korea will accept the offer or not. The reason behind this is that in the past decade North Korea has viewed these talks as an attempt to take over. It also wants a united Korea with Pyongyang in charge, which is nearly impossible.

Ryoo went further to mention hope of rejoining the families separated by the Korean War. In the past North Korea has made a negative responses to all offers of talks by saying that they were attempts to topple down Pyongyang’s Government. The talks which were to be held in October were also boycotted by the North Korean government in response to the offensive messages sent to that government. The two nations had previously agreed to restart the dialogue when a high-ranked North Korean delegation made a surprise visit to the Asian Games held in the South Korea in October. Ryoo has not addressed the nation on Monday leaving a huge question whether North will accept this offer or not.

“What the North wants from the South is some kind of assurance… to stop the leaflets so I am not sure if the North would embrace the offer easily,” said Hong, analyst at Sejong Institute. Still there are symptoms that the North Korean government will accept this offer in order to defuse tensions created by the recent cyber crimes. Washington has also decided to respond with a long-lasting reaction to the North Korean government for hacking Sony, which is the studio behind the movie The Interview, a comedy movie based on the idea of kidnapping Kim. North Korea has viewed this as a direct act of war. South Korea’s nuclear reactors have also been facing a series of cyber strings.

Tensions are raising day by day as the UN has turned its attentions towards Pyongyang for its record of crimes against humanity.

Analysis by Armaghan Naveed

Catalonia´s bid for independence is uncovering a deep rift in Spain´s political and social fabric

December 29, 2014 by The Speaker Editors

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The ongoing Catalan bid for independence and the political crisis between the central government in Madrid and Catalonia has opened up a divide which is creating an internal conflict within Spain that runs deep into the social fabric of the country. The divide is threatening to unravel the progress made by the county since the death of The Dictator, Francisco Franco.

A symbolic Catalan vote for independence that took place on the 9^th of November asked two fundamental questions. Should Catalonia become a state? And should Catalonia become an independent state?

The symbolic test vote produced 2.3 Million votes with 80% voting both yes to becoming a state and yes to becoming an independent state. This has been the political stepping stone that independence parties need to push through early elections in 2015. Meanwhile Catalonia fights to create a constitutional reform that will open the way for a separation from Spain and the right to be a country in its own right.

The central government has continually blocked the creation of a subcommittee to begin debating a constitutional reform. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has famously said that he will give “no concession” to Catalonia´s demands, and refuses to recognize the symbolic referendum opinion vote of November.

Mariano Rajoy has gone as far as to file criminal complaints against the president of the Catalan Government Artur Mas for having organized the “non-binding vote” and also pushed to re-centralize power as a way to punish Catalonia. Hundreds of Catalans have gone to the Supreme Court to plead guilty for voting as part of the solidarity campaign to support Mas.

There is a strong national identity in Catalonia that seeks to distance itself from Spain. Bullfighting is banned and the Catalan language that was thoroughly opposed during the dictatorship of General Franco is gaining popularity as a language in its own right. Famously, a sign existed in Barcelona´s trams: “Prohibited: spitting, swearing and speaking Catalan.”

Every year Catalonia is forced to hand over 17 billion Euros of their taxes to Madrid´s coffers, the province which contributes the most, having a larger GDP per capita plus than the rest of the country, apart from the fact that Catalonia does not enjoy fiscal autonomy like the Basque country.

Recently allegations of corruption within the central governing party, the PP (Popular Party) have pushed the divide even further. The Catalan political parties, pushing for independence, have made the end to political corruption a central theme of their manifesto.

A famous case known as the “Barcena´s papers” has rocked Spain to its core, challenging the public perception of the political elite and the traditional two party system.

Luis Barcenas nicknamed by the police as “Luis the bastard” for years was involved in tax fraud and accepting illegal payments, he stood down from the PP in 2010 but continued to accept payments. When investigated for Political corruption 22 million Euros were discovered in a Swiss bank account and a private secret ledger indicating the current president Mariano Rajoy was receiving undeclared payments.

Catalonia has not come out of the corruption scandal unscathed ether. Its famous ex-president Jordi Pujol, who served from 1980 to 2003, is currently under investigation for having syphoned off public funds which were the channeled into fiscal paradises around the world by his sons.

One of the main reasons that Catalonia looks to independence is to stem the tide of politcal corruption that has plagued the country and instilled mistrust in the political elite to the point that the population of Spain is increasingly looking for alternative parties such as “Podemos” meaning “We Can,” a political movement which was which was born from the 15-M Indignados movement.

Regardless of the rift that seems to be threatening Spain´s social fabric, Catalonia continues to push forward the independence vote, regardless of the outcome of independence votes in Scotland and Quebec, and 2015 will be a key year for politics in Spain.

Analysis by Anthony Bain